If it has not happened to you before, it likely will at some point in time. You will have started a game well and might even be looking at a possible gammon against your opponent. However, for whatever reason, you have yet to use the doubling cube. If you decide to use the cube, your opponent will probably drop. However, if you do not use the cube, you are left with only 2 points.

Additionally, without doubling, there is always the chance that something happens and you lose the game, throwing away an easy point by using the cube. The question of whether to take the doubling cube option or to seek the gammon is one everyone has faced at some point or another.

Early in the Match

• Generally, it depends on your particular situation as to which route you should take as well as the current score. If neither player is close to winning – being more than 5 points from winning the match - and money is at stake, the player should play for a gammon if it looks twice as likely that they will win the gammon.
  
  To follow this rule though, it is important to know exactly what the odds of winning the gammon are versus the odds of losing. The estimation and math involved in figuring out such odds is one of the hardest aspects of the game and even world champions will admit that they have made mistakes in doing so in the past. Generally, you must estimate and compare your estimates the best you can. If a player believes they have a 1 in 5 chance of winning a gammon and only a 1 in 20 chance of losing the game, the choice is obviously clear. However, if their estimates are 1 in 7 for the gammon and 1 in 10 for the loss, the doubling cube might be the best option.
  
  If you are lucky, the decision should be so easy. However, there are some instances in which the numbers are much closer and require a different approach to assure the best possible outcome. If that is the case, you might need to make a judgment call. Most of the time, the best choice when the odds are close is to double with the cube. If you are going to make a mistake in your judgment you may as well get a point rather than give one up to your opponent.
  
  Additionally, your opponent might make the decision to take the cube and give you a break and a few extra points in the process. Occasionally this could backfire and result in a loss, but the odds are still in your favor, the key to winning in backgammon.
  
  

End of the Match

• Now, when either player is much closer to winning a match, within 4 or less, the decision becomes much more complicated, involving a series of new decisions. The math in this situation begins to illustrate why backgammon can be one of the most complex games around, involving undeniable skill and attention to detail. This is where match equities become important.
  
  While, here are more detailed articles available here on match equity, but the basics are very important. Essentially, you need to know exactly how likely you are to win a match based on how many points you win or lose. After figuring those odds, you compare them to the odds you’ve already figured for the particular game and decide which decision is best for you.
  
  On occasion, if your opponent is far enough behind you and you are close to winning the match, it is not a good idea to offer the double, because despite the odds, it is in their best interest to take the cube and then redouble it. Despite the gammon, the odds are better for your opponent with the doubling cube on the table because they could still win the match and in the process gain 4 points, possible giving them the win.
  
  Consider a situation in which your opponent is trailing you 5-1 in a 7 point match. If you were to offer the doubling cube and your opponent took and immediately gave it back to you, the cube now sits at 4. If you continue and win the game, you will win the match. However, if your opponent manages to come back and defeat you, they will tie the match and if they somehow manage to gammon you, they could actually win the match.
  
  

The Decision is Never Easy

• Backgammon is a very complex game because of these situations. That’s a good thing, because people might not enjoy it nearly as much if it was not so complex. However, it is in these situations that players must learn to utilize math and more involved thinking. On occasion, situations are too complex to figure out mathematically. Even the best players in the world occasionally fail to keep track of the odds and the math behind a situation properly and lose.
  
  Numerous books from Backgammon masters such as Bill Roberti and Nack Ballard go into greater detail about how you can use the numbers to your advantage. There are also numerous computer programs available that will allow you to study and dissect your past matches and discover where you may have gone wrong.